MATRAS ENGLISH – An international team of scientists from the University of Canterbury in New Zealand, the German Aerospace Center, the Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology in Finland, the University of Santiago, Chile, and the University of Granada in Spain has presented a detailed forecast of New Zealand’s energy consumption through 2050. This is the first study of this scale to show not only the total volume of future demand but also its potential changes over time and across economic sectors. To that end, the scientists collated and harmonized data on the country’s final energy consumption in the power generation, heating and transport sectors, using them as the basis for a quantitative forecast with hourly and regional breakdowns.
Today, New Zealand’s aggregate final energy consumption ranges between 130 TWh and 140 TWh per year. This figure was close to the upper limit in 2019, before the pandemic, and dropped significantly in 2020–2021; it would not come back to the historical levels of 136–141 TWh until 2025. Further dynamics are no longer inertial and directly depend on the chosen trajectory of energy transition.
In accelerated electrification scenarios, aggregate final energy consumption goes down to about 120 TWh by 2050 due to a sharp increase in energy efficiency. In scenarios where biomass and synthetic fuels play a larger role, demand remains closer to the current level of 135–140 TWh, as these energy sources require higher energy inputs per unit of useful work compared to direct electricity consumption.
The differences between the scenarios are especially evident in the structure of demand. Today, the heating sector consumes about 60 TWh per year. Nearly half of this volume is industrial heat, including roughly 17 TWh for high-temperature processes above 300°C and another 14 TWh for medium-temperature processes. Heating of buildings and hot water supply make up about 23 TWh. In active electrification scenarios, final energy consumption in the heating sector remains virtually unchanged by 2050, hovering between 55 TWh and 60 TWh due to the widespread adoption of heat pumps. In alternative scenarios, where industry and buildings rely more on biofuels and hydrogen, heat consumption rises to 70–75 TWh.
Even more radical changes are projected in the transport sector. Today, transport remains the largest energy consumer at about 55–60 TWh per year, of which almost 40 TWh is represented by passenger cars. In every scenario, transport demonstrates the largest reduction in final energy consumption: down to 15–20 TWh by 2050. This can be attributed to the higher efficiency of electric drives: a switch to electric cars, buses and railways would require 3–4 times less energy with the same traffic.
The structure of the transport balance is also changing fundamentally. According to the scientists’ calculations, about 9–12 TWh out of these 15–20 TWh will be represented by electricity, with the rest made up of biofuels and synthetic fuels for segments where direct electrification is more difficult to implement. In all scenarios considered, fossil fuels are completely replaced in the transport sector by mid-century.
Overall electricity demand will also increase in these conditions. Consumption in the clean energy sector (excluding heating and transport) will rise from about 20 TWh in 2020 to 45–50 TWh by 2050. Taking electricity for heating and transport into consideration, the load on the power grid increases even more. What is crucial is not only the annual volume but also the distribution of demand over time. Simulation shows that the electrification of heating leads to higher peak loads in winter, while mass charging of electric vehicles creates pronounced evening and nighttime peaks. In accelerated electrification scenarios, peak national load reaches 16–18 GW by 2050 versus 10–12 GW in 2020, even with moderate growth in annual consumption.
Particular attention in the study is given to the spatial distribution of demand. The calculations cover 16 administrative regions of New Zealand, showing that about half of the country’s energy consumption is concentrated in a few of the most populous and economically developed regions, primarily Auckland, Canterbury and Waikato. However, industrial heating loads are distributed differently and are often concentrated in regions with developed manufacturing industries.
The study’s main conclusion is that electrification will significantly improve the efficiency of the entire energy system: switching from fuel combustion to direct use of electricity will enable the same useful work (heating, transportation and industrial production) to be performed at significantly lower costs. As a result, the country could achieve its climate goals without increasing overall energy consumption, and even with reductions in some scenarios. However, this efficiency has a downside as well: it creates new challenges in terms of peak load management, grid development and energy system flexibility, making hourly and regional planning a key government priority. (*)
